New paper – Latent class model with emotional coherence

The fourth paper from my PhD thesis has just been published by Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. As with the previous ones, this was co-written with my two PhD supervisors, Professor Elisabetta Cherchi (previously working at Newcastle University, now at NYU Abu Dhabi), and Dr. Quoc Vuong.

Building on the HOTCO model, originally devised by Professor Paul Thagard, we estimate a joint latent class-discrete choice model to analyse electric vehicle preferences among private car owners in England. In a previous publication, we applied the emotional coherence framework, which proves highly valuable for understanding how individuals rationalize their transportation decisions. This framework goes beyond conventional economic and performance factors such as purchase price, fuel costs, and driving range, to uncover the underlying motives and emotional influences shaping these choices.

We use results from a stated choice experiment to estimate a latent-class choice model, a framework that allows dealing with preference heterogeneity (or how preferences vary across the population). The psychological component of the model helps us in identifying distinct purchasing profiles. As expected, one group exhibits a strong willingness to embrace innovation. These individuals are less cost-sensitive and are primarily motivated by emotional factors such as environmental awareness, comfort, and convenience. However, they represent only a minority of decision-makers. In contrast, a larger segment of consumers tends to prioritise cost and practical considerations, making them more reluctant to adopt innovative alternatives like electric vehicles. These individuals are generally less influenced by attitudinal or emotional factors. The majority of our sample consists of a group we called “potential innovators”. They appear open to purchase electric vehicles under the right conditions, as they value both environmental and performance benefits but remain cautious about practical constraints.

The emotional coherence model also yields interesting implications for policy and decision-making. I will always argue that a fundamental shift in public attitudes could have a profound impact in the adoption of innovative alternatives. Conversely, if social attitudes towards an alternative take a more negative turn, policy interventions may face greater resistance and a reduced effectiveness. This highlights the need for targeted awareness campaigns that accounts for attitude variability across the society. These tailored strategy to distinct consumer segments could bring a greater impact in sales and adoption.

As always, the editor and reviewers contributed greatly to improve the paper, and writing with my PhD supervisors is an honor and a privilege. The paper is open access and can be viewed and downloaded here.